Seyed Ghaem Mousavi
Translated by: Majed Kiasat
Undoubtedly, many changes in the basis of Iran's negotiations with the six major world powers can also affect the interests of other regional and global actors. The quality of this negotiation and its tangible outcomes can even affect the regional order in the short, medium and ultimately the geopolitics of the region in the long run.
Accordingly, some countries are basically reluctant to negotiate and tend to keep the issue in crisis so that they ride the wave of crisis in pursuit of their own interests. However, there is disagreement among this range of countries on the severity of the crisis. Israel is the main cause of maximum confrontation and regional rivals seeking continuous but controlled conflict. Therefore, as long as it is possible for countries to return to the negotiating table, there will also be the possibility of provocative measures to eliminate or influence it. These moves can be influenced by the interests and rivalries of domestic forces or the regional-global interests of other countries. For example, the publication of a letter indicating the former president's order to the head of the Program and Budget Agency to vacate the treasury, at a time when the Deputy Foreign Minister was in talks with the European side. One of these signals was to damage the outcome of the negotiations. It means showing the empty hand of the Iranian side and as a result the inability to use bargaining skills in the negotiations and as a result the possibility of not reaching an agreement! Or a cyber-attack on the country's fuel system.
On the other hand, the story of the US magnifying and accusing the Iranians of delaying Iran's return to the negotiating table is highlighted. There is a lot of pressure on this. Exactly when Iran, after months of using the trick of ambiguity and the policy of waiting, announces an almost definite time for the resumption of negotiations, the news of the re-sanctioning of Iranian individuals and companies is heard. Play cat and mouse! This procedure has already been applied by Iran. That is, exactly when Trump's re-election to the White House was ruled out and the possibility of reaching an agreement became more apparent with the new presidency, Iran began to resume activities on its nuclear program as compensatory measures. Measures to compensate for Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal, albeit with a delay of months;
Even now, after the United States has provided a variety of tactics to pressure Iran to return to the nuclear talks, it has issued a statement on the sidelines of the G20 summit with European countries, and on the other hand, it is imposing new sanctions.
They strongly feared the transition of executive power in Iran and assessed Iran's nuclear moves to reduce the nuclear evasion time and Iran's efforts to provide the conditions for weighing the scales of negotiations in Iran's favor. That is why the two sides have resorted to zigzagging, and the Americans have imposed new sanctions. Adding to the complexity of the conflict is the essence of the dispute over the nuclear program and the mountain of sanctions. With the difference that the Western parties are trying to tie it to the set of differences with Iran or at least move forward with a project, but Iran thinks of an island and strongly avoids package talks. Because it thinks that the west intends to confiscate all the power with a comprehensive negotiation strategy.
In an island strategy, if considerations force it to fall short [including economic or pressure from seemingly allied countries] or to concede concessions, it has retained the upper hand in other area of conflict. Thus, the nuclear program has become costly beyond its nature and has become the first stronghold. In other words, it has become a stronghold that, if conquered by the enemy, will lead to the fall of other strongholds. They see the next strongholds as a regional role, weapons capabilities, human rights, and even the existence of a system called the Islamic Republic.
The stem cells of the parties' thinking have eroded negotiations and, consequently, agreement, cells that proliferate willingly or unwillingly, in a timely manner or out of place, and at least delay, if not interrupt, the healing process of cancerous relationships.
