Dr. Mohammad Mansournejad

Translated by: Majed Kiasat

Dr. Mohammad Mansournejad Member of the Board of the Iranian Scientific Association for Peace Studies and Researcher in the Field of Politics and International Relations in an interview with the Iranian Journal of International Relations

Regarding the US goals of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and handing over the country to the Taliban, he said: “The United States has dominated the region for nearly two decades, and as we know, Afghanistan shares a border with China, and we know that China is America's most important economic rival. And many experts believe that the US military withdrawal from the region is aimed at better competing with China". According to Dr. Mansournejad, The fact that the United States has been in a country for many years and suddenly left that country is a matter of great concern and it is in line with the method, character, political and security considerations for the United States to leave the region?
Dr. Mansournejad considered it necessary to pay attention to two points. First, the negotiations in Doha, Qatar, were a great achievement for the Taliban, according to which 6,000 prisoners of this group were released by the central government of Afghanistan. In other words, the central government of Afghanistan was forced to release these prisoners, because representatives of this government were not present in many meetings. The United States therefore forced the Afghan government to release nearly 6,000 Taliban prisoners who were trained and motivated students. As a result, the Taliban regained the military capacity to successfully enter the scene .Second, as a result of the Doha talks, the United States was able to reduce its presence in Afghanistan and announce its decision to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. According to Dr. Mansournejad, the obvious or hidden message of this agreement to the Taliban was: the opportunity is very good and you have enough power and the central government is weak and powerless, so you (the Taliban) come and take it.
"What I understand, and without a doubt, the United States itself paved the way for the re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, thus making the region insecure for China and subsequently Iran," he said. This means that with the withdrawal of the United States, the weak central and central government of Afghanistan will not be able to dominate and support the whole country. But the Taliban have more organizing force and can take over most of Afghanistan in the next two or three years. But we must not forget that other groups present in Afghanistan, such as the Hazaras, Tajiks and Uzbeks, who are mainly based in the northern region of Afghanistan, also have their own motives and do not easily hand over Kabul, Panjshir Valley and other areas to the Taliban. These groups are now mobilizing and preparing and will resist, and even the Taliban will have to fight them if they take control of Afghanistan. According to this researcher in the field of international relations, the region is becoming insecure, especially for China and then for Iran. The rise of the Taliban could lead to the spread of other groups, such as ISIS. In general, Dr. Mansournejad considers this exit to be an engineered and purposeful exit by the United States, which aims to destabilize the region with the Taliban gaining power.
Regarding the Taliban's dominance in Afghanistan and its effects on regional security, especially in Iran, he said: "What countries are Afghanistan's neighbors? Iran is located in the west, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in the north, China in the east and Pakistan in the south of Afghanistan. And of course it is adjacent to the Kashmir region. Each of these countries has its own issues. In the conflict between Pakistan and India, for example, Afghanistan will automatically act in Pakistan's favor in the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. The Taliban's ideological backing is the Pakistanian Div Bandi sect, and its military backing is Pakistani support. As a result, interference in the Kashmir issue will be in Pakistan's interest, but this support for Pakistan will jeopardize India's security, which will anger India. It is very clear that despite the mountainous nature of the eastern region of Afghanistan, which borders China, but due to the non-classical nature of the Taliban forces and the lack of common restrictions and the use of asymmetric warfare, if these forces clash with the Chinese army in these areas, the Taliban Could pose a serious threat to China".
According to Dr. Mansournejad, China will have to increase its spending on its border with Afghanistan and deploy more troops in the border region. As for Iran, he said, the army is already deployed in the eastern regions and is on alert. We need to know that the Taliban do not seek to establish a conventional government, and even if they dominate Afghanistan, they will call themselves the Islamic Emirate, not a conventional government that acts in accordance with international standards. Therefore, the Taliban's claims and commitments cannot be trusted. He believes that as long as the Taliban are present on Iran's eastern borders, the eastern regions of Iran will also be insecure. The Taliban have a history of killing Shiites and even killing Iranian diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif. Although the Taliban claim to be Hanafi religious, they have different views from the Hanafis of Pakistan and India, so it is very dangerous for Iran in terms of security. Of course, this threat has other dimensions as well. Iran, for example, is investing in Afghanistan and will be challenged by the rise of the Taliban. The issue of immigration should also be noted that many Afghan refugees will seek refuge in Iran, which will be costly for Iran. The situation will be the same for Afghanistan's northern neighbors and they will face serious security problems. In addition to the migration of Afghans from different ethnic groups, including Tajiks, Turkmen, and Uzbeks to the northern borders, the way for terrorist groups to infiltrate these areas will also be smoother. The insecurity of these countries will automatically lead to the insecurity of Russia.
Dr. Mansournejad concluded by saying that the Taliban's domination of Afghanistan would jeopardize not only regional security but also global security, strengthen the global position of extremist currents on one hand, and weaken the moderate current in the world on the other hand.

Editorial Board of Iranian Journal of International Relations